Volume II No. 18
 12-13-03
 All Democratic Eyes On 2008
 author: Vance Cureton
 © Copyright 2003

 Someone should clue in Howard Dean to the cruel world of politics at the
 highest level. With Al Gore's suprise endorsement this week. Dean may
 think he's the big winner. But, unless he somehow miraculously captures
 the Presidency next year. --- A big if. Dean has merely become a pawn 
 in the political chess match that has just begun between the ex-Vice 
 President. And the ex-First lady.

 Both Al Gore and Hillary Clinton hope to profit - politically - from Howard
 Dean's coming defeat in November 2004.  That is, if in the meantime, Dean 
 avoids fumbling the football Gore just handed him, and actually marches 
 forward to win the party nomination.

 Here is what Dean - or any Democratic nominee faces.

 A ham-fisted, arrogant President, who nontheless is beloved by his
 political constituency. An economy that while far from robust, is showing
 strong signs of recovery. A military situation in Iraq that while dangerous 
 is hardly, as an example, what the Soviet military faced in Afghanistan 
 during the Gorbachev era.

 Despite the bad press, and the suicide bombings. Progress is being
 made. Women enjoy more freedom. The people of Iraq no longer have
 have to look over the shoulders in fear of spies. Music and the arts 
 are being celebrated again. 

 A little freedom can mean a lot. And the people are finding their courage
 to speak out -- on almost any subject. A practice that would have meant
 imprisonment and certain execution under the former tyrannical regime.

 In fact, the bombings, surely the work of Hussein loyalists, only demonstrate 
 the ineffectiveness of such tactics in fomenting widespread unrest. The
 destabilization may work for an hour. Or a day. Or the fear may linger for
 a week or more. But people eventually go on with their lives, as they must.

 Suicide bombings don't work in Israel. They don't work in Turkey. They
 don't work in Kenya. And they aren't going to work in Iraq.

 The only way to seize control of the situation in a country, is to have a 
 well-armed army at the ready. And neither the remnants of Saddam's Fedayeen 
 have that. And neither does Al Queda.

 There is no real love for Osama Bin Laden in Iraq. There never was. -- He is a
 Saudi of all things.

 Iraq is not Afghanistan. Where Bin Laden is regarded by many fundamentalist 
 tribes as a hero of Islam. Iraq is not likely to become the political cesspool that 
 Lebanon once was. Nor is Iraq likely to become the military quagmire many in 
 Europe would love to see the U.S. -- and her cowboy President -- burdened 
 with.

 Iraq is slowly on the way to becoming a quasi-democratic state burdened 
 with numerous ethnic animosities. A state unsure of what role religion will 
 ultimately play in the government. But, such a state it will become.

 All on George Bush's watch.

 The reality of where Iraq is headed. The road taken. Comes through.

 So despite Dean's -- and the other Democratic candidate's rhetoric -- seizing
 the White House from the Imperial President who resides there. Is going to 
 be a daunting task. The power of the incumbency is awesome. George Bush 
 is no Jimmy Carter. And before Iraq would ever become a noose around his 
 neck, Bush is likely to be decisive and quick in running back to the United
 Nations for help -- while dangling precious reconstruction contracts to our
 alienated allies behind his back.

 The likelihood of George Bush remaining at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
 for four more years, is strong. That leaves 2008. With a defeated Dean - or 
 any other Democratic nominee - Al Gore and Hillary Clinton will have two 
 tremendous advantages if either decides to run.

 Actually they will have three!

 The American electorate usually tires of one political party in the White House 
 after eight long years, and will usually seek change. If merely, for change's sake.

 And as for Gore and Hillary personally. Al Gore will still be the man who
 received the most popular votes in 2000, only to have the election stolen
 from him by a conservative Supreme Court. And Hillary will be the loyal
 wife of a President -- who despite his moral shortcomings was adored by 
 many Democrats, and was in his own way, a very effective leader. And by 
 2008, Hillary Clinton will have staked out a political identity all her own. 
 She will always be the ex-First Lady. But she will also be Senator Clinton 
 from New York.

 A second Bush term may be a hard reality for Democrats who despise
 the man -- and rightly -- question his competency and style of leadership.
 The damage done to American prestige overseas in the nearly four years 
 since the 2000 election has been considerable. But, Gore's decision not to 
 run. And Hillary's similar evasion were both wise political choices.

 It is the dreamers such as Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, Dick Gephardt,
 and John Kerry who hope for that 2004 carrot.

 Will one of these men occupy the White House soon?

 The odds are strongly against any such probability.

 And if Dean does in fact win the Democratic nomination. And loses the 
 election to the incumbent President. He will be a man who has climbed a 
 huge mountain. But has nowhere to go. 

 He will have gained statue. But not enough. In fact, if he loses badly. Then, 
 he will merely have been Al Gore's political pawn. { ask Joe Lieberman how 
 that feels }

 Meanwhile, all Democratic eyes will be focused squarely on 2008.

 { editor's note: Saddam Hussein was captured less than 24 hours after
   this article was published. Thus, guaranteeing more favorable press
   for George Bush in the short term. And perhaps the long-term, as well. }
 

 ReadingPost.Com
 © Copyright 2003

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